Tuesday, April 27, 2010

CMBS Monthly Delinquency Report 4-23-10

Realpoint LLC

April 2010

Monthly Delinquency Report 4-23-10

CMBS Outstanding Balance:

The total unpaid balance for CMBS pools reviewed by Realpoint for the March 2010 remittance was $798.22 billion, up slightly from $797.06 billion in February 2010. The resultant delinquency ratio for March 2010 of 6.4% (up from the 6% reported one month prior) is nearly four times the 1.66% reported one-year prior in March 2009 and over 22 times the Realpoint recorded low point of 0.283% from June 2007. The increase in both delinquent unpaid balance and percentage reflects a steady increase from historic lows in mid-2007.

Trend:

In March 2010, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased by another $3.23 billion, up to $51.05 billion from $47.82 billion a month prior. This included an increase in four of the five delinquency categories. Overall, the delinquent unpaid balance is up almost 268% from one-year ago (when only $13.89 billion of delinquent unpaid balance was reported for March 2009), and is now over 23 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. The distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 27th straight month – up by $2.57 billion (7%) from the previous month and $30.31 billion (352%) in the past year (up from only $8.6 billion in February 2009).

Forecast:

Therefore, with the combined potential for large-loan delinquency in the coming months and the recently experienced average growth month-over-month, Realpoint now projects the delinquent unpaid CMBS balance to continue along its current trend and grow to between $60 and $70 billion by mid 2010. Based upon an updated trend analysis, we now project the delinquency percentage to grow to between 8% and 9% through mid 2010, potentially approaching and surpassing 11% to 12% under more heavily stressed scenarios through the year-end 2010).